Setting a three-year EPS range for PSUs when the order book only covers nine months

US-listed capital goods manufacturer, about $7bn in revenue. Half of our PSU award is on cumulative three-year earnings per share. The business is cyclical and visibility beyond nine months is poor.

The last three cycles have paid 0%, 200% and 0%. The committee has lost confidence in its ability to set the range. Options being discussed are three one-year targets averaged, a wider range from 70% to 130% of target, or replacing EPS with return on invested capital relative to peers.

Which of these has worked for other cyclical businesses?