Our raw gap rose while the adjusted gap fell, and how we explained both at once

Australian professional services firm, about 2,300 people. This year our published median gap went from 14.2% to 15.6%, and in the same period our adjusted gap fell from 2.4% to 1.1%. Internally this was received as HR claiming success while the number everyone can see got worse.

The cause was hiring. We brought in 140 graduates, 62% of them women, at the bottom of the structure. That is good for the pipeline and bad for the median for several years.

We ended up publishing a short explainer with a projection: if this cohort progresses at the same rate as previous ones, the raw gap starts to fall in year three. I was nervous about putting a forecast in writing. Curious whether others commit to trajectories publicly.